This, entire, sabre rattling round with Iran is designed for some sort of internal policy gains, ( as well as to please the pro-Israel lobby) and it has nothing to do with “real” intentions to attack Iran.

Although I have no diubt that there are a lot of people in the WH who are pushing for a war with the IRanians- it seems that even TRump is not that insane . And the recent increases in the number of troops and other moves, all appear to be cosmetic moves- made to create a certain picture- not real preparations for a war.

For starters, there were over 500 000 troops, and a whole bunch of technology send to fight Iraq- current numbers of US troops in the region are not even near that level, and, any Invasion of IRan would take at least a million ( or more) men. And the same goes for the movements of ships, plane carriers and/or a few squadrons of aircraft that Pentagon keeps flying in and out of the region they are there.. but nowhere near the numbers needed to attack the Persians.

Then there is the fact that besides Israel, the Saudis and a few other places, no one will support a war with IRan- meaning, the US could not count on allies — and, there is a serious risk of Russia getting involved ….

It has been said a lot of times, so I am just repeating this but Iran is not Iraq…. the nation is rather hegemonic and any attack from an outside power would only serve to gather all the Iranians around the same cause and strengthen the position of the regime even more. Any successful military campaign in IRan ( and they did not loose a defensive war in over 450 years- nor did they wage an offensive one during the same period) would entail sending in ground troops- and doing that, in a terrain in which the entire population is against you is not the smartest of moves. Also, and there is no doubt about this- if pushed into a corner, the Iranians will attack American interests in the region, and, very likely, Israel and the Saudis will become a target for Iranian missiles

I do not doubt the fact that the US would, eventually win in a conflict with Iran=- but, I do not believe that anyone is ready to accept the losses that wound entail….

Besides- even if there is a clear/curt military victory ( of the Kind the Americans didn’t have since 1999) . It would mean nothing, unless the US gets involved in an occupation that will last for the next century or so — can you imagine the manpower and resources needed to keep control of the territory ????

And although both Riyadh and Tel-aviv keep asking Trump to start one- I just do not see a war with Iran happening anytime soon… Instead, they will keep using it to raise political tensions, and keep as a useful boogeyman when they need to scare the voters.